Once again, it’s my favourite time of the year: Awards season. This Sunday comes the most important night of the year in the music industry: the coveted Grammy Awards! 2024 is a year for the musical history books, with huge releases across all genres and epic eras for so many artists. This year, industry legends were at the top of their game, new stars rose to fame, and artists who have put in the work for years finally got their moments in the sun. This year’s music has transcended sound and launched cultural moments unlike anything we’ve seen this decade so far. A year full of great music must be celebrated, but not without some friendly competition! There’s no denying that this year’s categories are stacked full of deserving nominees, but there’s only so many Grammys to go around. What makes a winner, and how can we predict who will score big on music’s biggest night? As a self-proclaimed awards season expert, I’m breaking down the coveted big four categories and explaining my backed predictions, as well as my personal picks. Let’s get into it.

Song of the Year

The Songwriter’s Award: this accolade honours a single track that exceeds artistic achievement and excellence. This award focuses mostly on the songwriting, melodies, and composition of the song. It’s undeniable that cultural impact and commercial success have a stake in any winner’s chances, but compared to other categories, being a hit doesn’t carry as much weight in SOTY. Here are this year’s nominees:

• Beyoncé – “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM”
• Sabrina Carpenter – “Please Please Please”
• Billie Eilish – “BIRDS OF A FEATHER”
• Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars – “Die With a Smile”
• Kendrick Lamar – “Not Like Us”
• Chappell Roan – “Good Luck, Babe!”
• Shaboozey – “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
• Taylor Swift – “Fortnight” ft. Post Malone

This is a rare year where any of the nominees have the potential to swoop in and grab the prize. To find a winner in this competitive group of nominees, let’s take out the bottom of the pack. Although “Fortnight” scored the Billboard #1 spot (like every lead single off of every Taylor Swift album will likely do for the rest of time), this song was forgotten fast, and it was never really a smash hit to begin with. It’s surprising that Swift, an artist widely celebrated for her songwriting, has never won Song of the Year, but the forgettable, unremarkable “Fortnight” is not the song to do it. “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” is another hit without the steam to carry it to a major win, especially not for this songwriting accolade. “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” is the kind of fun, well produced hit (with a surprisingly long reign at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100) that would fit nicely into the Record of the Year category, but it feels out of place in this pack. Although this song was huge, I would count this one out for the win.Proving the strength of this year’s music, any of the top five contenders in this category have a serious chance of taking it home. “Please Please Please” and “Good Luck, Babe!” are more than just addicting, catchy pop songs; they provide something new and interesting with their inventive, clever storytelling. Although I’d love to see either of these two rising stars landing on top, the Grammy darlings in the top three just have a slight edge on them. “Not Like Us” is Kendrick Lamar at his best: a cultural moment with the most unforgettable, iconic, and jawdropping lyrics of the year. He’s got a serious shot, but Rap Songs have historically had a tough time taking SOTY in the past, and this song might just be too controversial to appeal to all Grammy voters. Lamar has also never won in the general fields, and I wouldn’t fully count out “Not Like Us” to be the track to break that streak. The record seems to sit comfortably in third place. SOTY comes down to “Die With a Smile” VS. “Birds of a Feather.” If you look at last year’s winner in this category, you’ll find Eilish herself with “What Was I Made For?” taking this major award, not even during an album cycle year, but for a soundtrack song (did I mention how much the Grammys love Billie Eilish?). But if you look two years prior, you’ll find another Bruno Mars duet with Silk Sonic’s “Leave The Door Open,” also a smooth, charming smash hit that is impossible for anyone to hate (did I mention how much the Grammys also love Bruno Mars?). This is a battle of titans, but when you look at both of these huge songs, I think Eilish edges out Gaga and Mars this time. I knew from the moment I heard “Die With a Smile” that it was the perfect Grammy bait song that any radio listener aged 9-90 would adore, but its message, songwriting, and delivery are all very… safe. The lyrics are incredibly predictable, and it’s just a lovely power ballad. Meanwhile, “Birds of a Feather” is an interesting pop song from Eilish with stunning melodic choices, perfectly fitting lyrics to convey its message that make it impossible to hate this song. There’s a reason this track is the most streamed song released in 2024. With Eilish’s Grammy history and this beautiful track, she’s sure to take home Song of the Year for a second consecutive year.

Prediction: “Birds of a Feather”

Pick: “Good Luck, Babe!”

Record of the Year

Awarded to a single track, recognizing the recording, production, and engineering of the song; this award focuses on all of the producers and engineers as well as the artist’s performance. Here are this year’s nominees:

• The Beatles – “Now and Then”
• Beyoncé – “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM”
• Sabrina Carpenter – “Espresso”
• Charli xcx – “360”
• Billie Eilish – “BIRDS OF A FEATHER”
• Kendrick Lamar – “Not Like Us”
• Chappell Roan – “Good Luck, Babe!”
• Taylor Swift – “Fortnight” ft. Post Malone

Let me get this out of the way right away, giving The Beatles the Record of the Year prize for their “last song ever” is just the type of thing the Grammys would pull. Although this is undoubtedly the least prevalent song out of this list of nominees, I think it has a genuine chance to shock everyone and win this category. But, for my sake, I’m going to imagine that the Recording Academy views the use of AI to resurrect John Lennon as more unsettling than impressive. Besides, the Grammys loves to award ROTY to a smash hit (look at Daft Punk’s “Get Lucky” or Bruno Mars’ “24K Magic”). That’s why I’m eliminating songs from The Beatles, Taylor Swift, and Charli xcx from this pack. Although everyone knows I’d love to see the iconic “360” receive some love at the Grammys, it didn’t exactly smash any records, and I can’t imagine older Grammy voters understanding the concept of being “so Julia.” “Good Luck, Babe!” and “Birds of a Feather” are both wonderfully interesting pop songs that have stunning production, and I do view them as top contenders, but they might just fall short in this category. I would love to see Kendrick Lamar recognized here, and many people have predicted “Not Like Us” to get its moment in ROTY, but I do think its shining attribute is its songwriting. Its virality and significance cannot be ignored, but (accounting for its similar holdbacks in the SOTY category), I think it’ll be the runner up in Record of the Year.I am predicting the addictive, inescapable “Espresso” by Sabrina Carpenter to win Record of the Year. This was undeniably the song of the summer, and is a perfect fit for a ROTY winner: a smash hit that everyone loves, that also feels fresh with interesting production. In my mind, “Espresso” is this year’s “Flowers” by Miley Cyrus. I predicted “Flowers” last year, and I was absolutely correct. This kind of smash pop song is just a perfect winner in the Record of the Year category. Also, this song was easily one of the most memorable of 2024, so it should be awarded with this huge honour. Everybody and their grandmothers were singing “Espresso,” and if Carpenter is going to get awarded this year, it must be for this instantly iconic hit. It’s undoubtedly a worthy winner for Record of the Year.

Prediction: “Espresso”

Pick: “360” (just because that’d be awesome)

Best New Artist

This time last year (and the year before that), I was grasping for straws trying to justify a pick for Best New Artist, and this year I’m struggling to dwindle it down to one victor out of a list of deserving nominees. This year has been huge for breakthrough artists. Here are the nominees:

• Benson Boone
• Sabrina Carpenter
• Doechii
• Khruangbin
• RAYE
• Chappell Roan
• Shaboozey
• Teddy Swims

Almost all of these artists have had huge breakout years, but two artists are miles ahead of the rest of the pack. As always, you’ll run into the classic BNA archetypes in the nomination batch. The artist who should’ve been nominated last year (RAYE) and the artists who had one smash hit last year, but haven’t found success as an artist outside of a viral single (Benson Boone, Shaboozey, and Teddy Swims). In a weak year of nominees, we could see a very likeable, chart-topping Shaboozey take home Best New Artist. But having two pop icons rise to fame in the same year, not only having the biggest breakthroughs of 2024, but being the most relevant artists of the entire year would make it difficult for him to secure the win. This is a two horse race: Sabrina Carpenter VS. Chappell Roan.Both of these women go beyond viral moments; they’ve each achieved multiple smash singles, released massively successful albums to back them up, and have become cultural phenomena just within a year. Sabrina is the more commercially sensible pick. Her three big hits, “Espresso,” “Please Please Please,” and “Taste” simultaneously remained in the Top 10 for several consecutive weeks, which is a wildly impressive feat. She’s got the music, the recognizable, iconic image, and a sold out arena tour! What could she possibly have against her? Well, the powerhouse that is Chappell Roan, of course; the immediate icon that has taken the entire world by storm. Within months, Roan transformed from a niche queer artist to a household name. She had seven hits charting on the Hot 100 at the same time, having each of the tracks off her debut album go viral, one after another. She became a breath of fresh air in the music industry, having everyone wonder what she’d do, say, or wear next (who else is dressing like a butterfly, a wrestler, and the Statue of Liberty on stage?). At every festival this summer, crowds lined up to see one person: the incomparable Chappell Roan. Simply put, Chappell Roan is something that the music world hasn’t seen in years. I can see the Record Academy adoring the loveable Sabrina Carpenter and celebrating her phenomenal year, but my main gripe with Carpenter winning Best New Artist is the key word in the title: “New.” It’s hard to look at an artist on their sixth studio album and classify them as some shiny new artist. I know that this award is granted for a musician’s breakthrough, but Carpenter has had multiple viral songs in the past couple of years, like “Nonsense” and “Feather” to name a few, and we all remember her “Skin” moment with Olivia Rodrigo and Joshua Bassett in 2021. Don’t get me wrong, Chappell is by no means new to the music industry; she’s been putting in the work for a decade, been signed and dropped, and has released multiple singles over the years. As many people have said, it takes ten years to become an overnight success. The difference is that, if you look back to a year ago, none of your family or friends even knew who Chappell Roan was. Now, she’s an iconic figure in the music industry. That is the kind of breakthrough that should be rewarded. As Adele has said, “She not just got one song, she’s got 7 f*cking brilliant songs” Also, as the only major award that recognizes an artist as a whole, voters will account for Roan’s messages, impact in the queer community, memorable persona, and incredible stage performance (that garnered her the biggest crowd in Lollapalooza history, by the way). As always, there’s a dark horse in the BNA category, and if we see an unexpected vote split between Roan and Carpenter, we could see Doechii come through and take this win (she’s been campaigning perfectly, her music is blowing up, and her star is rising, so don’t count her out just yet). But all in all, I think Chappell Roan easily has this in the bag, and this will be one of the most deserved wins of the night. We haven’t seen an artist this exciting and fresh in a long time; she is the epitome of a Best New Artist.

Prediction: Chappell Roan

Pick: Chappell Roan.

So that’s all folks. Oh wait, I almost forgot the biggest award of the night… Album of the Year. That’s a totally different conversation. Check out my AOTY article for my detailed, final thoughts on who I think will take home the coveted AOTY. As for now, here’s some more predictions for some other big categories. What do you think? Do you agree with my takes? Who would you pick?

Best Pop Solo Performance

Beyoncé – Bodyguard

Billie Eilish – Birds of a Feather

Chappell Roan – Good Luck, Babe!*pick

Charli XCX – Apple

Sabrina Carpenter – Espresso** winner

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

Ariana Grande, Brandy & Monica – The Boy Is Mine – Remix

Beyoncé Featuring Post Malone – Levii’s Jeans

Charli XCX & Billie Eilish – Guess Featuring Billie Eilish* pick

Gracie Abrams Featuring Taylor Swift – Us.

Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars – Die With a Smile**winner

Best Pop Vocal Album

Ariana Grande – Eternal Sunshine

Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft** winner

Chappell Roan – The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess* pick

Sabrina Carpenter – Short n’ Sweet

Taylor Swift – The Tortured Poets Department

Best Rap Song

Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar – Like That

Glorilla – Yeah Glo!Kendrick Lamar – Not Like Us** winner & pick

Rapsody & Hit-Boy – Asteroids

¥$, Kanye West, Ty Dolla $ign & Rich the Kid Featuring Playboi Carti – Carnival

Best Music Video

A$AP Rocky – Tailor Swif

Charli XCX – 360* pick

Eminem – Houdini

Kendrick Lamar – Not Like Us** winner

Taylor Swift Featuring Post Malone – Fortnight