The 67th Annual Grammy Awards are taking place tonight, Sunday, February 2nd, and throughout the 94 categories, one coveted award stands tall above the rest: Album of the Year. 2024 was a huge year for albums; not just as a collection of songs, but as a complete, cohesive, and impactful body of work. This is the stiffest AOTY competition that we’ve seen in recent years, with an opportunity for nearly any of these records to land on top. Here are the nominees:

Album of the Year

• André 3000 – New Blue Sun

• Beyoncé – COWBOY CARTER

• Sabrina Carpenter – Short n’ Sweet

• Charli xcx – BRAT

• Jacob Collier – Djesse Vol. 4

• Billie Eilish – HIT ME HARD AND SOFT

• Chappell Roan – The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess

• Taylor Swift – THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT

After a year of many notable album releases, the AOTY nominations accurately reflect both the public’s obsessions and the critical acclaim (with a few exceptions of course). The biggest upset in this group is André 3000’s debut solo record, an 87-minute experimental flute album; no lyrics, just pure flute. Although this album was met with critical acclaim, the public unsurprisingly did not latch onto this record when it came out in November of 2023; with some fans notably disappointed in his transition from rapper to flutist. His experimentation, acclaim, and big name have earned him this recognition, but in this case, the nomination is the win.

Jacob Collier’s Djesse Vol. 4 has an even lower chance of winning. This album also has a talented name attached to it; similarly loved by the Recording Academy (I don’t understand why the Grammys are obsessed with Jacob Collier), but it has less acclaim and made even less noise.

The top six contenders are all huge female releases that took the world by storm. You can quote me on this: 2024 is the year of the pop girl. From Charli to Chappell, women in pop music have been on the forefront throughout this Grammy cycle, and the AOTY nominations reflect these major mainstream successes. The Recording Academy neglected to include much variety this year, which poses the question: if there are so many pop albums in the same category, who will the pop voters vote for? What differentiates those who vote for Billie Eilish, Chappell Roan, or Charli xcx? This leads to the serious possibility of vote splitting, where the votes are evenly spread out amongst the major artists and an upset emerges. Maybe we should let André 3000’s flute album take the Grammy just to avoid a full-on Twitter war between the pop stan groups.

When looking at these six nominations critically, Taylor Swift’s THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT sticks out at the bottom of the pack. Swift is undeniably the biggest name in the industry right now, but the odds of her winning a fifth AOTY prize, in the year immediately following her last win, are slim to none. The mediocre quality of this album and the general public’s lackluster, often negative, attitude towards it solidify this assessment. I don’t believe they’ll just give Swift the prize because of her current success in the industry (they already did that last year with Midnights). Her Midnights win in early 2024 completely strips any chance of her taking the prize this year, which is likely to put a smile on the face of non-Swifties interested in the AOTY. Also, the Taylor fatigue is real. The public is sick of seeing Taylor Swift win everything and be everywhere, and while this resentment is majorly unfair, it is undoubtedly present. Swift’s victory is not completely impossible, but it is highly unlikely.

Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet joins TTPD in the “could happen, but probably won’t” category. This album was a huge jump for her career and it was met with commercial success and internet buzz. Although this era has been a breakthrough for Carpenter, the album was majorly carried by its three hit singles.

Voters may know some of the songs, but I don’t think the album, as a whole, is enough to secure the win. Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess had seven separate tracks charting on the Billboard Hot 100 at one time…a year after its release. This long lasting impact is a majorly impressive feat, especially for an artist that was virtually unknown when she dropped this debut album in September of 2023. The album is a well constructed and meaningful body of work, but when the general public reflects on Roan’s rise to fame this year, she has made more of an impact with her singles and her performances, rather than her album. Maybe the power of an album that contains so many viral hits like “HOT-TO-GO”, “Feminonemon”, “Red Wine Supernova” and “Casual” will be strong enough to propel itself towards a win, but I think Roan will be rewarded in other categories. It’s difficult for a new artist to win AOTY on their debut record, and I don’t think this is where Roan will win big tonight.

Now it’s time for the big three: There is one big question tonight: Is the Recording Academy brat? Charli XCX’s BRAT is easily the most recognizable era of the year. It created its own aesthetic; it claimed a whole season, and the colour green will never be the same. Unexpectedly for many, BRAT has received the highest critical acclaim of any of the nominees. It was also met with an overwhelming public obsession and virality that Charli xcx has never seen before. If it has the acclaim from critics and audiences, shouldn’t it be a lock? Well, the truth is, if you ask an average Grammy voter to sing two bars off of BRAT, you would probably hear crickets, and maybe a brief attempt at the Apple dance. Pop culture is in an odd space where the mainstream has gone niche, and the world has finally caught up with Charli xcx. Although this album is a cultural phenomenon, the average music listener is more engaged with the aesthetics and the presentation of the album than the actual music itself. BRAT is truly some of the best works of the year, but I don’t think Charli XCX has broken through far enough to secure a win this major. Despite my predictions, I think that this album is the most deserving of the title, because it is undeniably the most memorable album of the year, and the most representative of this moment in time. Who else is shutting down Times Square for a performance, or getting “Brat” to be Collins Dictionary word of the year? 2024 is the year of BRAT, but is the Recording Academy ready to give AOTY to an album so un-Grammy-friendly? It would be pretty iconic to give AOTY to a record that contains a bonus track about malevolently blowing up the Grammy’s ceremony. It could happen, but in the face of two huge competitors, I don’t know if the Grammys are cool enough to give AOTY to Charli xcx’s BRAT.

So now we’re down to the final battle. It’s a competition between two industry giants that have had incredible albums and fantastic years in music: Billie Eilish VS Beyoncé. HIT ME HARD AND SOFT and COWBOY CARTER, besides the capitalization of their titles, could not be more different. Their strengths directly contrast each other. While Eilish has produced a concise 10-track album that never overstays its welcome, Beyoncé released a sprawling, epic 27-track project, exploring numerous genres and styles. HMHAS is definitely more agreeable, which could mean bad or boring, but with Eilish, this album is just so good that everyone loves it.

It would be hard to find anybody that hates this Billie Eilish project; she’s at the top of her game with fresh production and well-written songs that fit together perfectly on this cohesive record. “Birds of a Feather” and “Lunch” were big hits, but even one of the non-singles off the album, “Wildflower,” with no promotion or radio push, has amassed an incredible 810 million streams on Spotify. The public adores Eilish, and the Grammys love her even more (they’ve even given her AOTY before for her debut, WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO?). There is a strong chance that Billie Eilish will win this award; the only thing in her way is the incomparable Beyoncé. COWBOY CARTER was more than just an album this year: it was a cultural moment that pushed boundaries and sparked conversations. On this ambitious work, Beyoncé includes country legends like Dolly Parton and Willie Nelson, while also uplifting young Black female country artists like Brittney Spencer and Reyna Roberts. The work speaks for itself, but Beyoncé’s resistance to doing any live performances, interviews, or promotional material for this album has hindered its chances and shortened its longevity. It only lasted 28 weeks before dropping off the Billboard 200, and its 1.6 billion total streams on Spotify pales in comparison to HIT ME HARD AND SOFT, with 5.6 billion. It’s much more ambitious than Eilish’s record, but it is also much more divisive. COWBOY CARTER has picked up steam in the last few weeks, though, with her recent “Beyoncé Bowl” performance on Christmas Day (the best piece of Grammys campaigning I’ve ever seen).

The main thing to consider is Beyoncé’s infamous AOTY losing streak. She has been the front-runner for her last three AOTY contenders: BEYONCÉ in 2013, Lemonade in 2016, and RENAISSANCE in 2022. Each time, Beyoncé has been snubbed and walked away empty handed. She has the most Grammys of any artist, ever, yet has never won Album of the Year. The reason why deserves an article of its own, but the cultural weight in Beyoncé’s music that makes each album so important and significant is the same factor that leads the Recording Academy to snub her continuously. This album might be her biggest swing yet; the whole thing is a statement. Is this the time where they finally reward her? We all remember Jay-Z’s speech at last year’s ceremony criticizing the Grammys for their reluctance to give her AOTY, so is this the time that they make up for their mistakes? My answer is…yes. This is the year it’s going to happen for Beyoncé. Although it’s not her strongest album (I think her last three records should’ve all won AOTY), it’s important, relevant, and the time is simply right for her victory.

This is absolutely the toughest category of this year’s Grammy Awards, but I believe that COWBOY CARTER will win Album of the Year at tonight’s ceremony. Of course, the Grammys are always wildly unpredictable with decisions that I don’t quite understand or agree with, so I will be seated and anticipating the unexpected. Honestly, I would not doubt that André 3000 will march up on that stage with his flute in his hand and hoist that Grammy up high. Anything can happen, that’s why it’s so fun! Tune into the Grammy Awards tonight to see this year’s big winners.

Prediction: COWBOY CARTER

Runner-up: HIT ME HARD AND SOFT

Dark Horse: BRAT

Pick: BRAT