By Michael Goussios

The 66th Annual Grammy Awards will be held in Los Angeles on Sunday, February 4th 2024, although the list of nominees has just recently been released by The Recording Academy. This year’s nominations in the general fields are genre-defying, containing a diverse group of contenders across numerous different musical styles and sounds. A number of important factors determine the eventual victor of each category, including popularity, songwriting, impact, reputation within the academy, and hopefully above all else, quality of music. I will be breaking down the nominees for the four major awards at this year’s ceremony, explaining not only my personal picks, but my well-founded predictions of who will score big on music’s biggest night.

Best New Artist:

The first general category is Best New Artist. This category recognizes individuals who broke into the mainstream in this past year and had a significant impact on the musical landscape. Typically, the probable victor is quite clear to the general public during the buildup to nominations; the biggest breakout artists tend to make a large splash in the industry.

Winners in recent years include the formidable Billie Eilish, Dua Lipa, Megan Thee Stallion, and Olivia Rodrigo; huge names that rose quickly to fame with hit projects.

In 2022, the nominations were bleak, with very few standout contenders. The winner, the talented Samara Joy, had seemingly the least buzz of anyone in the pack. This showcased a shift in the Recording Academy’s criteria; a greater focus on talent rather than fame. Within the 2023 nominees, the trend has continued; very few big names are listed.

Gracie Abrams’ soft singer-songwriter projects have built her a sizable following, largely aided by her appearances as an opener on Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour.

Noah Kahan’s folk-infused pop has gained major attention, and fans were pleased to see him nominated. As always, some nominated artists (this year, Victoria Monét and Coco Jones) have been in the music industry for several years, but have made recent breakthroughs that garnered newfound popularity. Monét’s seven nominations signify her strong chances for winning Best New Artist.

Unfortunately for her, there’s one individual who the public (especially Gen-Z) will immediately recall when thinking about the breakthrough artist of 2023: Ice Spice. With viral hits like In Ha Mood, collaborations with the likes of Nicki Minaj and Taylor Swift, and her massive cultural impact, Ice Spice’s sudden rise to fame has secured her as a frontrunner in this race. Her music, from an objective standpoint, may not be the strongest in the pack, but she took 2023 by storm, and is the true definition of a breakout star.

Her undeniable cultural influence and monumental rise in popularity make her a clear favourite in this category.

Prediction: Ice Spice

Pick: Noah Kahan

Snubbed: Renee Rapp, Raye

Song of the Year:

Song of the Year is a Songwriter’s Award given to an artist who has crafted an impactful single with exceptional lyricism above all else. This year’s lineup is strong, with nominees that not only stand out musically, but have also garnered massive popularity and public recognition. The nomination of Lana Del Rey’s A&W was a huge shock; a controversial single from an artist who has never been favoured by the Recording Academy.

Nonetheless, this 7-minute psychedelic adventure is a perfect example of great storytelling and a delightful surprise of a nomination.

Two songs from the Barbie soundtrack, Dua Lipa’s Dance The Night and Billie Eilish’s What Was I Made For? were both nominated for this category, the latter being a much stronger candidate. Eilish’s soft, sweet track gained popularity quickly, and became arguably the most memorable song off of the movie’s hit soundtrack (besides I’m Just Ken, of course), making it a clear contender for the award. Eilish is also a Grammy darling, having won seven awards at just 19 years of age, and snagged six nominations in a year in which she didn’t even release a full solo project.

Jon Batiste’s Butterfly also received a nod from the Academy, although it doesn’t seem to possess the same popularity, impact, or quality as the other nominees, making a win unlikely. That being said, Batiste has a history of surprise wins at the Grammys, including his shocking Album of the Year win in 2022, making him a potential wildcard.

The other nominees comprise four major hits, Vampire by Olivia Rodrigo, Kill Bill by SZA, Flowers by Miley Cyrus and Anti-Hero by Taylor Swift, which each pose strong threats for the title.

In my mind, seeing that Rodrigo didn’t win with driver’s license in 2021, she likely won’t win with vampire.

Although both #1 singles showcase exceptional songwriting abilities, her debut song was a cultural reset, while the lead single for her new era didn’t quite match up, hurting her chances.

SZA’s album, SOS, was beloved by critics and audiences alike, making her a leader in nominations this year. Submitting the main hit single was the predictable choice, but Kill Bill demonstrates some of her weakest songwriting on the project. Although SZA delivers the vengeful storytelling effectively on this solid track, it is far from a major songwriting feat, and the lyrics are likely offputting or disturbing to more traditional academy members.

Miley Cyrus started 2023 off with a bang, releasing the hit single Flowers in January, which remained the biggest song in the world for nearly half of the year. The song dominated radios globally, drawing comparisons to Bruno Mars’ track When I Was Your Man, and prompting internet conversation regarding her ex-husband Liam Hemsworth. This catchy earworm was inescapable throughout the year, and beloved by all demographics (particularly divorced mothers). It spent 8 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100, and though it has lost momentum throughout the year, it still remains one of 2023’s most memorable hits.

Anti-Hero, the biggest hit from Taylor Swift’s Midnights, marks Swift’s record breaking 7th nomination in this category. Surprisingly, the acclaimed songwriter has never taken home the prize, but her longest-running Hot 100 #1 may be the song to finally win it. Swift is currently at the height of her powers, and this smash hit single has the popularity, relevance, and intelligent lyricism to secure a win in this major category. To me, this is Swift’s prize to lose, but many of the contenders in this strong roster could easily steal it from her.

Prediction: Anti-Hero (Flowers and What Was I Made For? closely following).

Pick: A&W

Snubbed: My Love Mine All Mine ⏐ Mistki; Francesca ⏐ Hozier

Record of the Year:

In contrast to the previous category, the Record of the Year award focuses greatly on the production, engineering, and mixing of a song, and secondarily on impact, popularity, and overall quality. This year’s nominees, per usual, closely reflect the SOTY roster, but must be judged through a different lens.

The two categories often share a winning track, but this year, I am predicting different victors.

Seeing boygenius get nominated, let alone receiving nods in major categories, was a lovely surprise. Although I don’t think that Not Strong Enough is impactful, culturally significant, or revolutionary enough to be a serious contender in this category, it’s been one of my favourite songs of the year, and a perfect addition to this lineup.

In a regular year, I would count Victoria Monét and Jon Batiste out, but since both have been shown major love from the academy in several categories this year, a surprise victory is possible for either one of these artists.

We see the same top five hits found in the SOTY roster, although different nominees will shine in this category.

Despite Anti-Hero being the clear frontrunner for the previous award, the song doesn’t have a strong chance at this category, being that its crowning achievement is its songwriting, not its production. What Was I Made For? falls to the same fate, albeit with slightly more favourable odds. Its strength lies in its songwriting, and not in its relatively simple production. This track should not be counted out though, as Eilish has already won this award twice, and the record’s unusual engineering and vulnerable vocals help her chances.

Vampire and Kill Bill both stand better chances in this category than the last, each featuring fresh, interesting, and impressive production. That being said, I don’t think that either single from Rodrigo or SZA has the impact to break through the crowd in the major categories, although they might be able to sneak wins in the smaller ones. Miley Cyrus deserves to take home at least one major award this year for her record-breaking, undeniably culturally impactful hit, Flowers, and in my opinion, this is the category to do it. Since the song’s lyricism is not extraordinary, and her album as a whole falls somewhat flat, this is Cyrus’ opportunity to snag a win.

This award has historically gone to huge, widely beloved hits, even those without spectacular production, so Flowers would fit right in with its predecessors. Although many of these strong singles have a fighting chance to take home the award, I think it’s time for Miley Cyrus to finally receive her flowers.

Prediction: Flowers (What Was I Made For? with similar chances)
Pick: Not Strong Enough
Snubbed: Rush ⏐ Troye Sivan; Paint the Town Red ⏐ Doja Cat; Padam Padam ⏐ Kylie Minogue

Album of the Year:

For the final, most important award of the ceremony, the Recording Academy has selected arguably the strongest batch of nominees in the last 5 years.

With every year’s AOTY nominations, it’s a given that some of the nominated albums will have one or two popular hit songs, but otherwise lack in quality. Miley Cyrus’ Endless Summer Vacation is a perfect example of this, containing the biggest hit of the year hidden inside of a messy, boring project with an overwhelming amount of filler tracks. The record majorly underperformed in relation to its lead single, and it does not stand a chance against the other nominees. A deserving AOTY winner is one that excels in each component of music-making, brings overall cultural impact, and maintains quality throughout.

GUTS by Olivia Rodrigo was well received by the singer’s fanbase and critics alike, but did not reach the commercial success or long-standing popularity of its 2021 predecessor, SOUR. I predicted that Rodrigo would sweep at the Grammy’s two years ago, but if she couldn’t win any major awards with her massive debut album, then it’s unlikely that GUTS will score big either. I loved to see boygenius’ the record nominated for this award.

The critically acclaimed project demonstrates newfound representation of alternative artists in the major categories. Similarly, I was both shocked and glad that Lana Del Rey received recognition for her amazing 2023 album. The singer took to Instagram to say that she didn’t know that artists had to submit their work for Grammy consideration, which was amusing, but certainly not to blame for her decade long losing streak. While I would love for either boygenius or Del Rey to get the recognition they deserve, it is likely that these two projects will split the alternative committee members’ votes. Additionally, alternative winners in the AOTY category are historically very rare, so I don’t see these slightly lesser known projects shining through among the tough competition.

I would immediately count out Jon Batiste’s World Music Radio, since the pop genre commonly prevails in this category and his album has largely flown under the radar. That being said, his surprise win two years ago has shifted my perspective; Batiste is beloved by the academy and well-nominated this year, giving him a chance to shock the world again. Personally, I don’t think lightning will strike twice for him. Barring any big upsets, this category is truly a battle between two powerhouses in the industry right now; SZA and Taylor Swift.

SZA is the leading artist for nominations this year, and her SOS album received massive praise from audiences and critics alike.

SZA has made her way into the mainstream since her debut, Ctrl, and this album has all the makings of a winner; strong production, vocal performance, songwriting, innovation, likeability, streams, and popularity. The one thing between her and the award is the current queen of the music industry, Taylor Swift. Midnights broke countless records, including most first-day Spotify album streams, becoming 2022s best-selling album along the way. Her past three wins in this category have been genre-shifting records, including her successful venture towards an indie-alternative sound with folklore just three years ago.

Last year, Harry Styles took the award, surprisingly beating out Beyoncé’s Renaissance. Styles’ record came nowhere near the cultural impact or critical acclaim of Beyoncé’s album, but the project snagged the win with the help of three factors; it had widespread appeal, it was commercially successful, and Styles was in the middle of a massive world tour at the time. He built up momentum and public attention with his iconic “Love on Tour,” throughout the entire year.

Videos of feather boas and group dance circles owned the TikTok For You Page in 2022, which certainly helped build his image as the most memorable artist of the year.

Swift is at the height of her powers right now, filling out stadiums globally and remaining at the forefront of the media. Not only is she receiving new levels of attention, but she is more beloved than ever, and the academy’s already positive opinion of her may have shifted even further in her favour. Swift is currently an unbeatable force, and this nomination presents the opportunity for her to win her fourth Album of the Year award, more than any artist ever.

In my mind, I have no doubt that she will break this record in her career, but the musically weak Midnights is just not the album to do it.

Although all signs point to Swift, including commercial success, popularity, and momentum, I’m placing my bets on SZA to take home the biggest award of the night.

“SZA has made her way into the mainstream since her debut, Ctrl, and this album has all the makings of a winner.”

Prediction: SOS (Midnights close behind)

Pick: SOS, the record, Did You Know That There’s A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd.

Snubbed: Unreal Unearth ⏐ Hozier; Desire, I want to turn into you ⏐ Caroline Polachek; The Land Is Inhospitable and So Are We ⏐ Mitski; Let’s Start Here ⏐ Lil Yachty; That! Feels Good! ⏐ Jessie Ware; Calico ⏐ Ryann Beatty